Kenya has taken a major step toward reshaping its economic relationship with Beijing, announcing a preliminary duty-free trade agreement with China that will allow 98.2 percent of Kenyan exports to enter the Chinese market without tariffs under an early-harvest framework. This development, disclosed by the Kenyan government in January 2026, represents a significant breakthrough in bilateral trade negotiations and a strategic effort to diversify Kenya’s export markets amid global trade headwinds.
The agreement, reached after months of negotiations following President William Ruto’s 2025 state visit to Beijing, builds on China’s broader initiative to expand duty-free and quota-free access for African countries. Kenya’s Trade, Investment and Industry Cabinet Secretary Lee Kinyanjui said the zero-duty arrangement unlocks “vast economic potential” for Kenyan producers by reducing trade barriers that have historically constrained exports of agricultural and value-added products such as tea, coffee, cut flowers, and horticultural crops.
Under the “early harvest” trade framework, Kenya gains immediate preferential access while both sides continue negotiations toward a comprehensive bilateral trade agreement that could cement even broader market access. Lawmakers must ratify the preliminary deal before it can take full effect.
Kenya’s move toward zero-duty access comes amid shifting global trade dynamics. With the renewal of the United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) now in legislative limbo and U.S. tariffs on several imported goods increasing, Nairobi has sought to balance its strategic partnerships between Washington and Beijing. Despite some reports suggesting U.S. pressure to reevaluate the China deal, Kenyan officials have strongly denied shelving negotiations, emphasising that talks remain “ongoing and at an advanced stage.”
Economists and business leaders have highlighted the agriculture sector, a cornerstone of Kenya’s export profile, as the largest beneficiary of duty-free access to China. Analysts note that greater access to the world’s second-largest economy could boost foreign earnings and create jobs in rural communities, particularly in tea, coffee and floriculture value chains.
Kenya’s robust engagement with China seeks to address a long-standing trade imbalance: in 2024, Kenyan imports from China far exceeded exports, creating a deficit that policymakers view as a drag on economic growth. By removing tariffs on the vast majority of exported goods, Kenya hopes to narrow the gap and incentivise manufacturers and agribusinesses to scale for export markets.
The duty-free framework echoes similar trade access measures being extended by China to other African partners, following Beijing’s mid-2025 announcement to expand zero-tariff treatment for African countries with diplomatic ties. These trade arrangements are often crafted as part of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) agenda, designed to deepen economic integration between China and the continent.
The duty-free deal sits within a wider pattern of Kenya-China cooperation that spans infrastructure, investment, and technology. In late 2025, Nairobi turned to China for a major $1.5 billion highway expansion project aimed at improving connectivity from the port of Mombasa into the interior and toward Kenya’s neighbours, with two Chinese state-owned contractors playing central roles.
China has also been a key partner in financing and constructing parts of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR), a flagship transport project linking Mombasa to Nairobi and beyond – reinforcing Kenya’s role as a regional economic hub. While Beijing’s direct financing for SGR extensions has shifted toward other partners such as the UAE, its overall infrastructure footprint remains significant in East Africa.
Trade cooperation has materialised alongside initiatives to support human capital development and technology transfer, including partnerships between Kenyan institutions and Chinese universities on vocational training, logistics, and supply chain management – all elements that enhance the country’s export competitiveness.
As Kenya prepares for full ratification of the preliminary trade agreement, stakeholders on both sides are optimistic about the economic opportunities it presents. Beyond helping agricultural producers secure footholds in the Chinese market, the deal could catalyse deeper integration of Kenya’s manufacturing and processing sectors into global value chains. It also highlights Nairobi’s pragmatic approach to economic diplomacy, pursuing diversified market access while managing geopolitical pressures from major powers like the U.S. and China.
In an era of shifting trade alliances, the Kenya–China duty-free arrangement marks an important milestone in Africa’s commercial engagement with global markets, one that promises to reshape export flows, support job creation, and strengthen the resilience of East Africa’s largest economy.
